The Syria Civil War (2011–2024): A Conflict Mapping Analysis of Structures and Actors

Abstract

Since 2011, the Syrian conflict has evolved from a domestic uprising into a fragmented and protracted civil war shaped by overlapping local, regional, and international interventions. The shifting patterns of territorial control, the proliferation of armed non-state actors, foreign military involvement, and inconclusive diplomatic efforts have transformed Syria into a multilayered conflict arena. This article employs conflict mapping as a relational analytical framework to examine the Syrian civil war. Drawing on Bartos and Wehr’s conflict mapping model and a qualitative analysis of secondary sources, it analyzes the conflict across four interconnected dimensions: context, actors, issues, and dynamics. It further traces shifts in the relationships among primary, secondary, and tertiary actors across key phases of the conflict between 2011 and 2024. The article argues that the persistence of the Syrian conflict cannot be explained solely by proxy competition or sectarian polarization. Rather, fragmented domestic authority structures have enabled external interventions, which in turn have deepened fragmentation and impeded conflict transformation. By foregrounding this recursive interaction, the study offers an alternative framework for understanding the durability of the conflict, The findings indicate that the war has been sustained through the interaction between fragmented local governance and layered external interventions, resisting resolution despite shifting configurations of power. In the absence of a shared political vision among the parties, the conflict is likely to persist in altered forms, transitioning from open warfare to low-intensity instability. Syria thus represents a durable no-resolution equilibrium, where neither decisive military victory nor comprehensive political settlement has proven attainable.