Cabaran Pembahagian Kerusi dalam Kerjasama Pilihan Raya di Malaysia: Analisis Terhadap BN-PH Menjelang PRN-16 di Melaka dan Johor (The Challenge of Seat Allocation within the Electoral Coalition in Malaysia: Analysis of BN-PH ahead of SE-16 in Malacca and Johore)

Abstract

Sixteenth State Election (SE-16) for Malacca and Johore will be held at the latest between the end of 2026 and mid-2027. For Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH), this is another important test leading up to the Sixteenth General Election (GE-16) in peninsular Malaysia. Since the current term still has quite a long way to go, there has been no official stance by BN-PH on whether they will work together or not, and which seats will be allocated if they do work together. If BN-PH continue their cooperation as well as SE-15 2023 in six states and all series of By-Elections, they are expected to face the SE-16 in Malacca and Johore as an electoral coalition. Anyhow, BN-PH will face early challenge in term of seat allocation. In this paper, there are five possible seat allocation scenarios been analysed. The discussion in this paper shows all the seat allocation scenarios bring negative implications to BN, PH and both. Also discussed were domestic political phenomena in Malacca and Johore such as cold relationship of BN-PH after Fifteenth General Election (GE-15) 2022, past competition, internal faction within UMNO, the future of National Trust Party (AMANAH) and the survival of Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) which are believed to influence the challenge of seat allocation within BN-PH. This paper highlights that the issue of seat allocation is still relevant and important to be reviewed by any electoral coalition, especially in the Westminster and first-pass-the-post systems. Focusing on the electoral coalition within BN-PH, the seat allocation during SE-16 in Melaka and Johor is seen as a reflection for both parties to face the GE-16.