Pilihan Raya Negeri Melaka 2021: Cerminan Pilihan Raya Umum 15? (Malacca State Election 2021: A Reflection of 15th General Election?)

Abstract

The Melaka State Election (PRN) took place on November 20, 2021. It happened when four State Assemblymen (ADUN) (two from the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), one from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (BERSATU), and one Independent representative) withdrew support from the state leadership led by Barisan Nasional (BN). This PRN has returned the mandate to the people to elect the leader of their choice. The results showed that BN regained control with a two-thirds majority victory. Thus, this article will look at several aspects from the Melaka PRN, such as the comparison of the results of the 14th General Election (GE) and the 2021 PRN in Melaka, the pattern of voter support, and an analysis of BN’s victory to see if it can be used as a yardstick in the upcoming GE-15. This study found that the voter support for BN at the Melaka State Assembly (DUN) level is very high and consistent from GE 1 to GE 13 and PRN 2021. Except for GE-14, BN is comfortable with a two-thirds majority in every election. Findings show that the areas contested by BN in the Melaka PRN have improved in performance. This improvement is evident, especially among its component partners, such as the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), both of which failed to win seats in GE14. Meanwhile, the overall performance of Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) has declined. Parti Islam Se Malaysia (PAS) also failed to win seats in the GE14 and PRN Melaka. The study also discovered six factor that can be utilized to determine whether the Melaka PRN can be used as a yardstick for GE-15, namely the strength of the contesting parties, manifesto, campaign and strategy, majority vote, timing, and issues. Overall, in the race to GE-15, BN has managed to outperform PH and PN in the Melaka state seat. The implication is that the opposition party is strategizing to compete in GE15, and various possibilities such as mergers or party defections, could occur.