The 2021 Melaka State Election to the 15th Malaysian General Election (GE15): A Reflection of Continuity or De-Realignment?

Abstract

This paper examines the 15th Melaka State Election and its implications for Malaysia’s evolving electoral realignment. Drawing on constituency-level, ethnic, and polling-lane data from the Election Commission (2008–2025), the analysis reveals how voter behaviour shifted across rural, semi-urban, and urban areas, particularly among Malay voters. Barisan Nasional (BN) achieved a decisive victory in the 2021 state election, winning 21 out of 28 seats amid low voter turnout, largely supported by older, rural Malay voters. However, by examining the state seats result through 15th Malaysian General Election (GE15) scoresheets, BN’s dominance collapsed, retaining only four seats, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) gained 10 and 14, respectively. Polling-lane analysis indicates generational divergence: BN’s support declined sharply in almost all polling lanes, whereas PN made significant inroads among youth, especially in rural and semi-urban areas. This trend reflects a broader partisan de-realignment process, wherein traditional UMNO-BN loyalties eroded, giving rise to new alignments centred on Malay-Muslim identity politics. The study finds that voter turnout patterns and demographic transitions particularly the expansion of the youth electorate under Undi18 during GE15 contributed to shifting political loyalties. While PH maintained urban dominance and Chinese-majority support. Overall, the Melaka case exemplifies a national trajectory of partisan de-realignment, shaped by generational change, identity-based politics, and declining trust in traditional party institutions.