Quantifying the effects of present and future LULC dynamics on landslide susceptibility: A case study of Idukki District (2021-2050)

Laxmi Ch. N. V., Kumari K. P

Abstract


Land use and land cover (LULC) changes represent significant anthropogenic factors affecting slope stability in mountainous regions. This study examines the impact of LULC changes from 2021 to 2050 on Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) in the Idukki district by employing Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and statistical modelling. Initially, a spatial geodatabase of nineteen conditioning parameters and historical landslide events was developed. Subsequently, the existing LULC (2021) and projected LULC (2050) were generated using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based Cellular Automata Model. Finally, a future LSM was forecasted using conditioning factors, landslide inventory data, and future LULC through the Frequency Ratio (FR) model. The simulated results indicated a significant increase in the built-up area (4.46%) and a reduction in bare ground (3.22%), with the predicted future LS results showing a 26% rise in the Very High LS zone. These findings hold substantial implications for regional planning in hazard-prone areas, and reforestation measures to mitigate slope instability for disaster risk reduction in the study area.

 

Keywords: ANN, Frequency Ratio Model, GIS, landslide susceptibility, land use and land cover, Remote Sensing


Keywords


ANN, Frequency Ratio Model, GIS, landslide susceptibility, land use and land cover, Remote Sensing

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References


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