Operationalising Social Return on Investment (SROI) in flood mitigation: Applying the Sungai Muda model to Shah Alam
Abstract
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development mandates the implementation of public financing models that balance economic advancement, social well-being, and environmental sustainability. However, in flood disaster management, funding justification remains challenging due to difficulties in quantifying the intangible social and environmental outcomes generated by mitigation projects. This study operationalises the Social Return on Investment (SROI) framework by integrating empirical evaluation with predictive forecasting to assess the broader societal value of flood mitigation projects in Malaysia. Using the completed Sungai Muda Flood Mitigation Project as the empirical baseline case to evaluate actual social return outcomes and forecast the potential social value of future flood mitigation initiatives, including the Shah Alam Flood Mitigation Project. The methodology translates social, environmental, and economic impacts into measurable financial proxies using stakeholder-informed valuation and comparative forecasting predictions derived from historical project performance. The findings reveal that the Sungai Muda Flood Mitigation Project generated a total social return value of RM4,892,641,540.00, indicating that every RM1 invested yields approximately RM4.88 in shared values of social, economic, and environmental benefits. These empirical findings subsequently serve as the baseline reference for forecasting and exemplifying the potential social return outcomes of the Shah Alam Flood Mitigation Project within the comparative SROI framework. The study further demonstrates that integrating predictive forecasting with empirical SROI assessment strengthens the framework’s capacity to estimate future social value creation under conditions of uncertainty and resource scarcity. The findings imply that the operationalised SROI framework provides government agencies, investors, policymakers, and project managers with a strategic evidence-based tool to justify funding allocation, optimise resource utilisation, and enhance the long-term sustainability and resilience of public investments in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Keywords: Flood mitigation project, social investment, Social Return on Investment (SROI), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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