Province-based analysis of recreation capacity and performance: A CRITIC–MARCOS approach

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the recreational capacity and performance of eight provinces in the Aegean Region of Turkey and to identify the most influential performance indicators. A hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework was employed, incorporating five criteria: total number of facilities, operation rate, bed-per-facility efficiency, occupancy rate, and bed density per population. Criterion weights were determined using CRITIC, while provincial rankings were obtained via MARCOS. Robustness was validated using TOPSIS, VIKOR, and sensitivity analysis. The findings reveal that efficiency-oriented indicators play a more decisive role than sheer quantitative capacity. Bed Density and Bed per Facility together accounted for nearly 40% of the total weight, underscoring their strong explanatory power. According to the MARCOS results, Aydın, Muğla, and Denizli emerged as the top-performing provinces, whereas Uşak and Kütahya ranked the lowest. Notably, İzmir ranked relatively low despite having one of the highest numbers of facilities, indicating that high facility count alone does not guarantee superior performance. High correlations among methods (Spearman ρ > 0.92) confirm the robustness of the rankings. These findings offer practical insights for tourism planners and policymakers, suggesting that efficiency improvements should be prioritized over capacity expansion. The study also contributes to the literature on MCDM applications in destination performance assessment by demonstrating the critical role of efficiency metrics in regional comparisons.

Keywords: CRITIC, MARCOS, MCDM, recreational capacity, tourism performance, Türkiye