As the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Report calls for promoting RMB internationalisation in an orderly manner, it has to confront significant geopolitical and geoeconomic risks. Given its strategic ties, ASEAN serves as a key region for RMB internationalisation. Existing studies mainly focus on currency linkages and clearing infrastructure, while comprehensive quantitative research on the determinants of RMB internationalisation in Southeast Asian countries remains limited. To address this gap, this study constructs the ASEAN RMB Internationalisation Index (ARII) to examine factors influencing its progress from 2011 to 2023. The research findings reveal that China’s exports to ASEAN countries did not contribute to RMB internationalisation, as a substantial share of trade transactions continues to be settled in U.S. dollars. By contrast, ASEAN’s portfolio investment, equity positions, and debt instruments in China have significantly facilitated RMB internationalisation through deeper financial integration. Moreover, the process of RMB internationalisation within ASEAN displays a pronounced path dependence, reflecting the cumulative effects of prior RMB usage and institutional expansion. The findings highlight China’s effort to balance financial control, currency policy, and capital market liberalisation while maintaining domestic stability and expanding international influence, shaping a distinctive state-guided pathway of RMB internationalisation. Policy implications suggest that sustained cooperation with regional financial centres particularly Singapore the deepening of settlement infrastructure, cautious enhancement of RMB asset liquidity, and continued engagement and interoperability with the U.S. dollar system are crucial to advancing the RMB’s international role in Southeast Asia and forging a pathway of internationalisation.

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