Impak perubahan iklim ke atas pertanian berdasarkan Model Simulasi Pertumbuhan Tanaman (CGS) (Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Based on the Crop Growth Simulation (CGS) Model)
Abstract
Sektor pertanian merupakan antara sektor ekonomi yang terawal yang mendapat tumpuan meluas dalam kajian-kajian berkaitan impak perubahan iklim. Hal ini didorong oleh kemudahterancaman sektor pertanian terhadap perubahan iklim selain kepentingan sektor ini dalam menjamin kelangsungan kehidupan manusia. Perbincangan berkaitan magnitud impak perubahan iklim ke atas sektor pertanian masih giat diperdebatkan sehingga ke hari ini. Sehingga kini, terdapat pelbagai kaedah dan model yang telah diaplikasikan bagi menilai impak perubahan iklim terhadap sektor pertanian di pelbagai negara. Antara model yang lazim digunakan oleh penyelidik ialah model simulasi pertumbuhan tanaman (CGS). Oleh yang demikian, matlamat kertas kerja ini adalah untuk meninjau impak perubahan iklim ke atas sektor pertanian di seluruh dunia melalui sorotan literatur kajian lepas yang telah menggunakan model CGS. Secara keseluruhan, tinjauan ini menyimpulkan bahawa tanaman pertanian antara negara di seluruh dunia menunjukkan sensitiviti iklim yang berbeza-beza. Impak perubahan iklim dijangka menjejaskan hasil pengeluaran pertanian di negara sedang membangun dan berpendapatan rendah, terutamanya di negara yang berada di iklim tropika atau di latitud yang rendah. Memandangkan terdapatnya kesan heterogen perubahan iklim ke atas sektor pertanian, oleh itu amat penting sekali bagi setiap pengkaji yang ingin mengkaji perhubungan antara iklim dan pertanian pada masa hadapan untuk memberi tumpuan terhadap aspek geografi iklim.
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