East Asian Bond Markets and Economic Growth

Rasidah Mohd Said



Although the relationship between the stock market and growth has attracted many researchers, the number of studies that have been carried out into the links between debt and growth is very limited. This article examines the relationship between debt markets and economic growth. Three categories of debts are considered in this analysis, using data from China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand for the years 2002 - 2009. The results show that public and private debts have contributed significantly to the growth of the region. The significant contribution of debt markets to GDP, however, is not common for all the countries in the sample and varies according to the category of debts issued. Both public and foreign currency debts have contributed in a significantly positive way to South Korea’s GDP, but only public debt contributes in a significantly positive way to the growth of China and Hong Kong. As for Japan, none of the debt markets has had any impact on its GDP.

Keywords: Financial development; debt market; economic growth


Walaupun kajian hubungan antara pasaran saham dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi telah menarik perhatian ramai penyelidik, kajian terhadap hubungkait antara pasaran hutang dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi masih sangat terhad. Kajian ini meneliti hubungan antara pasaran bon dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dengan menggunakan data dari China, Hong Kong, Jepun, Korea Selatan dan Thailand untuk tahun 2002-2009, tiga kategori pasaran hutang telah diberi perhatian dalam analisis ini. Keputusan analisis menunjukkan bahawa pasaran hutang awam dan pasaran hutang swasta telah memberi sumbangan yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi rantau ini. Sumbangan yang signifikan ini, bagaimana pun, adalah tidak sama untuk setiap negara yang dikaji, dan ia berbeza-beza mengikut kategori hutang yang dikeluarkan. Pasaran hutang awam dan pasaran hutang matawang asing memberi sumbangan yang positif terhadap KDNK Korea Selatan. Walau bagaimana pun, hanya pasaran hutang awam sahaja yang memberi sumbangan positif kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi China dan Hong Kong. Sementara itu, ketiga-tiga kategori pasaran hutang tidak memberi kesan kepada KDNK negara Jepun.

Kata kunci: Perkembangan kewangan; pasaran hutang; pertumbuhan ekonomi

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