Financial Liberalization in ASEAN and the Fiisher Hypothesis

Siong Hook Law, Hui Boon Tan, Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah

Abstract


This study examines the long-run relatinship between infaltion and nominal interest rates in the 1990s by utilizing the Johansen_Juselius multivariate cointegration technique. The evi dence supports the tax adjusted form of Fisher hypothesis for three ASEAN countries, namely Singapore, MAlaysia and Thailand. Thus, the assumption of a ztable real interset rate appears to have empirical support for these low-inflation economies. We also demonstrate that inflatioan rate is both weakly and strongly exogenous in these three systems. However, the weak form of the hypothesis is decisively rejected for the inflation prone countries like the Philippines and Indonesia. In general, our results suggest that in a deregulated environments real interest is insulated from nominal shocks and money is neutral.

ABSTRAK

Kajian ini meneliti hubungan jangka panjang antara inflasi dengan kadar bunga nominal dalam tahun 1990an dengan menggunakan teknik kointegrasi Johansen-Juselius. Keputusan kajian menyokong bentuk pelarasan cukai Hipotesis Fisher untuk tiga buah negara ASEAN, iaitu Singapura, Malaysia dan Thailand. Maka andaian kestabilan kadar bunga nampaknya menerima sokongan empirik di negara yang kadar inflasinya rendah. Artikel ini juga menunjukkan bahawa kadar inflasi adalah 'weakly' dan 'strongly exogenous' dalam ketiga-tiga negara tersebut. Walaubagaimanapun, bentuk hipotesis 'weakly' ini ditolak bagi negara yang cenderung kepada inflasi yang tinggi seperti Filipina dan Indonesia. Umumnya, keputusan kajaian menerangkan bahawa di dalam suasana deregulasi, kadar bunga benar tidak dipengaruhi oleh kejutan nominal dan wang adalah 'neutral'.

 


Full Text:

PDF

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.